Cape Verde grows more than expected, but there are African countries growing much more

economiesInternational Monetary Fund revises high Cape Verdean GDP growth for next year: 4.75%. Even with this figure, the country does not enter the list of the 30 emerging economies that will grow the most in 2019.

Of the thirty developing countries that will grow the most in 2019, half (15) are African. Of these, seven are part of ECOWAS: Ghana (6th on the list with annual GDP growth of 7.6), Côte d’Ivoire (9th, 7.0), Senegal (14th, 6.7), Benin (20th, 6,3), Burkina Faso (25º, 6,0), Guiné (26º, 5,9) and Sierra Leone (28º, 5,5).

Continuing the ranking analysis, four African countries (Libya, Ethiopia, Rwanda and Ghana) will grow more than India and 9 (bringing the Ivory Coast, Senegal, Djibouti, Tanzania and Benin together from the top four) more than China .

With the growth now projected by the IMF for Cape Verde, 4.75% in 2019, the country is out of this top 30. The last classified country is Egypt, with growth of 5.5% of GDP.

Emerging countries and developing economies will once again become the locomotive of the world economy in 2019, according to the IMF. It will be on your shoulders that will be the responsibility of global economic growth next year. At a time when the world economy is approaching the end of a cycle, and as the slowdown begins to show more and more signs, it will be the less advanced economies to better cope with these effects, mainly due to lower oil prices. In 2018, the value of brent fell by 20%.

The economy  in 2019

The world economy is expected to grow 3.7% next year, according to IMF estimates, a level similar to that recorded in recent years, but will have an uneven composition. If in 2017 and 2018 the advanced economies were to boost global growth, this year a slowdown is expected between these countries, mainly due to the United States of America and the Eurozone. In fact, doubts about the global evolution in the next quarters are increasing.

Indeed, the consequences of US President-elect Donald Trump’s tax reform on the country’s economy are beginning to run out – by 2019, US GDP will grow by about 2.5%, four tenths below that of this year . The Federal Reserve, which this year raised the price of money four times in the US, only plans to do so twice in 2019. The European Central Bank has acknowledged the slowdown in the European economy. And there are two moments in early 2019 that could be the key to what will happen in the global economy next year: the dialogue between Washington and Beijing to try to halt the trade war and the consummation of Brexit, key elements for “reducing the prolonged and high uncertainty that can derail the expected soft landing of the world economy, “writes BBVA Research,

The British Parliament will have to decide next January 14 if it votes against or in favor the agreement of exit of the European Union reached with the rest of the countries. The vote will depend on the extent to which the British and Eurozone economies will evolve. Although the IMF has forecast that British GDP will continue to increase in the next five years, the Bank of England has already warned of a possible contraction, which could reach 8% by 2023.

Within the Eurozone the Germany engine will maintain the growth rate of 1.9%, as well as France (1.6%). Malta will continue to be the fastest growing eurozone country (4.6%), followed by Cyprus (4.2%) and Slovakia (4.1%). On average, the Eurozone is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2019.

Among the major emerging economies, with the BRICS at their head, India will continue its expansion for the third consecutive year: with GDP growth reaching 7.4%; while Brazil, according to IMF forecasts, will see its economy improve by one percentage point. South Africa’s economy will double, while Russia is expected to grow, but slowly.

Advertisements